NFL Week 1 Picks

Well, I’m 1-for-1 so far this week, both spread and non-spread, so I’m off to the right start. Just 15 more to go, right? I’m kidding…I’ve never had a perfect picking week (even without the spread), and I doubt I’ll ever pull it off. My odds are better of breaking 250 in bowling…

Cincinnati at Baltimore
Chad Johnson’s legal name is now Ocho Cinco. There was a time when I found Chad amusing, but he seems to have crossed the line into full-blown idiocy. By the way, it’s ochenta y cinco…or did he always say that he wore “number eight five”? All of that aside, I think these are two pretty poor teams, and although I’m wary about taking Joe Flacco in his very first NFL start, I’m defaulting to the home team. I’m really not expecting much out of the Bengals this year.
Spread: Cincinnati -2
Prediction: Baltimore 17, Cincinnati 14

Detroit at Atlanta
These initial picks are tough. Beyond the limited information I’m dealing with, this being opening week and all, this is another edition of bad vs. bad (or, to be nice to Detroit, maybe mediocre vs. bad). Atlanta is another team rolling with a rookie starting QB right off the bat, but his supporting cast might be even worse than Flacco’s in Baltimore, and I think Detroit is a better team than Cincinnati too. I’ll take the Lions, even though taking the Lions on the road is enough to start making me tick uncontrollably…
Spread: Detroit -3
Prediction: Detroit 24, Atlanta 17

Houston at Pittsburgh
Poor Houston. They get to kick off a year full of games against the AFC South…with a warmup game at Heinz Field? I like the Texans. I think they can pull some upsets this year. Just not this week at this stadium. The Steelers will have a relatively easy time of it.
Spread: Pittsburgh -6.5
Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Houston 13

Jacksonville at Tennessee
If Jacksonville is going to contend for the AFC South this year, this is the kind of game they have to win right out of the chutes. While Tennessee is capable of pulling an upset on basically anybody at home, I can’t see one place on the field where they have a clear edge over the Jags, and Jacksonville does a fine job of translating their act to the road. I like the Jags by 7.
Spread: Jacksonville -3
Prediction: Jacksonville 23, Tennessee 16

Kansas City at New England
Even if we got a surprise on Sunday and Tom Brady ended up not playing…the Patriots would still win this game. The Chiefs are just awful. The spread aspect of this game might be interesting, as the Patriots are more than capable of beating the Chiefs by much more than 15, but I get the feeling that even Bill Belichick isn’t going to be too interested in keeping his starters out there in the second half to run up the score when Brady is still not at 100%.
Spread: New England -15
Prediction: New England 31, Kansas City 14

New York Jets at Miami
Well, well…Brett Favre getting handed a soft landing by the schedule. Total coincidence I realize, but man this guy’s NFL life has been charmed (I fully realize that his non-NFL life has been a bit more tumultuous). Both teams are adjusting to a starting quarterback who wasn’t on their roster at the beginning of training camp, so both start with the same disadvantage; at the end of the day, this comes down to the fact that the Jets, while not a great team, are far far better than the no-talent bunch lining up across from them.
Spread: NY Jets -3
Prediction: NY Jets 20, Miami 10

Seattle at Buffalo
This is a tough game for the Seahawks to start out with, I’ve thought so since the first day I saw the 2008 schedule. They already have a track record for faring poorly in these 10:00 games on the east coast, and the Bills, while nothing amazing, are a tough out; they don’t win enough to be significant, but they don’t get blown out by most teams either. If the defense can bring even close to the level of play on the road that they can at home, they’ll win this game, because I’d be fully prepared to coast against these guys at Qwest…but this is going to be difficult, especially with the injuries on offense. I tend to think we’ll probably eke one out, similar to our opener against Detroit a couple of years ago that was won on the strength of field goals alone, but nothing much is going to surprise me here.
Spread: Pick ‘Em
Prediction: Seattle 16, Buffalo 13

St. Louis at Philadelphia
Philadelphia is getting talked up as a Super Bowl contender. Really? I’m surprised by that level of respect, but I did put them in the playoffs as a wildcard myself. The paper-thin Rams are one team that are reliably way worse on the road than they are at home, and even at home I wouldn’t like their odds against the Eagles. Brian Westbrook has a big day and the Eagles have a fun opener.
Spread: Philadelphia -7.5
Prediction: Philadelphia 28, St. Louis 10

Tampa Bay at New Orleans
It looks like this one will indeed be played in New Orleans, a fact that was up in the air earlier this week due to the hurricane. If you saw my preseason picks and power rankings, you know that I think a good bit more of the Saints than I do of the Bucs. Last season was a bump in the road, but the Saints are going to contend again this year in my opinion, and they’ll start by setting aside their chief division rival in the opener.
Spread: New Orleans -3
Prediction: New Orleans 27, Tampa Bay 17

Carolina at San Diego
Could the Panthers surprise people and insert themselves into the NFC South conversation? I wouldn’t rule it out, but I don’t think they’re going to get off to a very good start here. The Chargers have way more talent and way fewer question marks. I just can’t see the Carolina offense getting going very effectively in this game, so even in a low-scoring affair I like the Chargers. Not too sure it’ll be a low-scoring affair, though…
Spread: San Diego -9
Prediction: San Diego 34, Carolina 13

Dallas at Cleveland
Two teams with inflated expectations. One has to start out the season disappointed. Sorry Browns, I’m certainly rooting for you in this game, but your really solid offense just looks like Dallas lite when you’re lined up across the field from each other. I see a good bit of scoring, some pretty entertaining football, but Dallas comes away with a big opening win.
Spread: Dallas -5.5
Prediction: Dallas 38, Cleveland 27

Arizona at San Francisco
The JT O’Sullivan era begins in San Francisco. Kind of seems like an even worse version of the 1997 Seahawks and the beginning of the John Friesz era. This era for SF will probably last just about as long, too. The 49ers just won’t be able to get much going on the offensive side of the ball, and I like Arizona to do just enough to win this game.
Spread: Arizona -2.5
Prediction: Arizona 17, San Francisco 10

Chicago at Indianapolis
The Bears are looking for some Super Bowl revenge, I suppose. Unfortunately for them, they were worse than the Colts two years ago, and have declined since then while the Colts have maintained a similar level of play. And, this isn’t a neutral field. Let’s face it, although the Bears are going to win some games this year with their usual ugly style of manufacturing points, Indianapolis has a pretty significant edge here. One of these teams could return to the big game this year, and it’s not the boys from Soldier Field…
Spread: Indianapolis -9.5
Prediction: Indianapolis 28, Chicago 17

Minnesota at Green Bay
This matchup is all kinds of intriguing. Point blank, the winner of this game immediately establishes some credibility as possibly being the early favorite to win the division. I don’t think there’s a huge difference in quality between these two teams, I actually think Minnesota is a little bit better, but homefield advantage swings me in the direction of picking the Packers to get by here.
Spread: Green Bay -2.5
Prediction: Green Bay 17, Minnesota 14

Denver at Oakland
This matchup, on the other hand, is really not intriguing. Two also-rans in the AFC West playing what will probably be some pretty boring football. I’ll concede this: if Denver can move the ball against this Oakland defense, they might be showing some very real symptoms that they’re better than I’m giving them credit for. As it is, I’m expecting a pretty ugly game decided by a field goal.
Spread: Denver -1.5
Prediction: Denver 13, Oakland 10